[NCSG-PC] Fwd: Re: Fwd: Re: [council] Reminder - topics for meeting with ICANN Board at ICANN61

[Sam Lanfranco]

Ayden, et. al.,

The gist of my comments on Skype (reproduced below) are that ICANN is 
probably at an inflection point on its revenue growth curve, and the 
budgets will get tighter going forward. There are diminishing returns 
from new gTLDs, when they come, there are social media options to 
registering domain names, both for persons and entities, and there are 
likely to be new technologies for Registrars to do their work. The 
prospects for a Distributed Ledger Technology (think blockchain 3.0 or 
Tangle 4.0 - i.e., down the road) will likely reduce the earned fees 
from existing domain name registrations. READ: ICANN's budget will 
shrink, hence my analogy of ICANN going from a Plum to a Prune.

This means that NCSG (& NCUC/NPOC) have to seriously look inward and 
assess the relative efficiency and effectiveness of the ICANN 
expenditures they account for. Xavier and crew have gone a considerable 
distance in giving us the granularity of budget expenses we asked for, 
to aid us in decision making. While we can mount arguments for why CROPP 
needs to be retained, we are implicitly (with silence) saying that 
everything else needs to be retained (mainly with regard to travel and 
accommodations - the big budget items).

It is my assessment that a "no shrinkage" strategy with regard to the 
NCSG entitlement is a "no go", and that budget cuts will come with or 
without consultation.  This may take a couple of years to roll out, but 
the NCSG & Co future will be will less ICANN funding. We can either 
think through how we adjust to that, we can start to look for other 
funding, or we can do both. What we cannot do, for much longer, is just 
insist on the status quo based simply on the notion that we we do is a 
good idea and in the Public Interest.

At the same time, we are hearing more and more about how ICANN the org, 
and ICANN the board are not happy with the dynamics and the progress of 
the ICANN pdp-wg model. We should anticipate, and help shape, changes 
there. Those of you meeting in Puerto Rico should be spending 
considerable time on how NCSG deals with these issues (or show that I 
have it wrong) and spend less time in a dance that makes it look like we 
are trying to hold the Board and ICANN org more accountable.

Sam L

/[*Skype posting*] By the last time I was able to attend an ICANN 
meeting (ICANN58: Copenhagen) Xavier had discussed greater budget 
granularity with NCSG and pledged to improve access and transparency. We 
may quibble on how much we now have, and how far ICANN has gone in 
improved granularity, but it is important to recognize that Xavier has 
gone a great distance in honoring that pledge. //
//
//That budget lines are under threat should come as no surprise as ICANN 
faces tighter revenues, and as ICANN goes forward both with a bit of 
belt tightening, and (not surprisingly) some reflection and reviews 
around how it carries out its work. //
//
//I, as an outsider with no inside information, suspect that ICANN will 
have to undergo a bit of organizational restructuring in the service of 
its remit and do so within tightening budget constraints.  While NCSG, 
and NCUC & NPOC, concern themselves with the short run future of CROPP, 
we should be thinking about structural changes that may even impact on 
our respective charters. At least that is my read from the outer seats 
in the stadium. /


On 2/15/2018 7:03 PM, Ayden Férdeline wrote:
> This is an excellent suggestion, Stephanie. I would like to hear what 
> suggestions the Board has here for us, too. This is something we 
> really need to tackle. And it's something I hope we might be able to 
> table for discussion in San Juan as well. We need to talk about the 
> expected standard of behaviour for our officers and members, along 
> with the trajectory ICANN is moving in and what that could mean for 
> us... We predicted ICANN was broke last year, insinuated as much in 
> our Reserve Fund comment, and called for cuts to spending, but we 
> haven't insulated ourselves sufficiently from these cuts... We are 
> very, very vulnerable at the moment and if we are not prudent with our 
> allocation of resources I worry we [non-commercial voices] could pay a 
> heavy price.*/I think Sam made a very insightful comment on this topic 
> yesterday on Skype; I'm cc'ing him into this discussion in case he'd 
> like to paste his message here for other list subscribers to see, 
> and/or expand upon his prediction./*.. I'd certainly like to hear more 
> about the 'red flags' we should be looking out for over the coming 12 
> months...
>
> Ayden
>
>

-- 
------------------------------------------------
"It is a disgrace to be rich and honoured
in an unjust state" -Confucius
  邦有道，贫且贱焉，耻也。邦无道，富且贵焉，耻也
------------------------------------------------
Visiting Prof, Xi'an Jaiotong-Liverpool Univ, Suzhou, China
Dr Sam Lanfranco (Prof Emeritus & Senior Scholar)
Econ, York U., Toronto, Ontario, CANADA - M3J 1P3
email:Lanfran at Yorku.ca    Skype: slanfranco
blog:https://samlanfranco.blogspot.com
Phone: +1 613-476-0429 cell: +1 416-816-2852

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