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<p>Ayden, et. al.,</p>
<p>The gist of my comments on Skype (reproduced below) are that
ICANN is probably at an inflection point on its revenue growth
curve, and the budgets will get tighter going forward. There are
diminishing returns from new gTLDs, when they come, there are
social media options to registering domain names, both for
persons and entities, and there are likely to be new
technologies for Registrars to do their work. The prospects for
a Distributed Ledger Technology (think blockchain 3.0 or Tangle
4.0 - i.e., down the road) will likely reduce the earned fees
from existing domain name registrations. READ: ICANN's budget
will shrink, hence my analogy of ICANN going from a Plum to a
Prune. <br>
</p>
<p>This means that NCSG (& NCUC/NPOC) have to seriously look
inward and assess the relative efficiency and effectiveness of
the ICANN expenditures they account for. Xavier and crew have
gone a considerable distance in giving us the granularity of
budget expenses we asked for, to aid us in decision making.
While we can mount arguments for why CROPP needs to be retained,
we are implicitly (with silence) saying that everything else
needs to be retained (mainly with regard to travel and
accommodations - the big budget items). <br>
</p>
<p>It is my assessment that a "no shrinkage" strategy with regard
to the NCSG entitlement is a "no go", and that budget cuts will
come with or without consultation. This may take a couple of
years to roll out, but the NCSG & Co future will be will
less ICANN funding. We can either think through how we adjust to
that, we can start to look for other funding, or we can do both.
What we cannot do, for much longer, is just insist on the status
quo based simply on the notion that we we do is a good idea and
in the Public Interest.</p>
<p>At the same time, we are hearing more and more about how ICANN
the org, and ICANN the board are not happy with the dynamics and
the progress of the ICANN pdp-wg model. We should anticipate,
and help shape, changes there. Those of you meeting in Puerto
Rico should be spending considerable time on how NCSG deals with
these issues (or show that I have it wrong) and spend less time
in a dance that makes it look like we are trying to hold the
Board and ICANN org more accountable. <br>
</p>
<p>Sam L</p>
<p><font size="-1" color="#330099"><i>[<b>Skype posting</b>] By
the last time I was able to attend an ICANN meeting
(ICANN58: Copenhagen) Xavier had discussed greater budget
granularity with NCSG and pledged to improve access and
transparency. We may quibble on how much we now have, and
how far ICANN has gone in improved granularity, but it is
important to recognize that Xavier has gone a great distance
in honoring that pledge. </i><i><br>
</i><i><br>
</i><i>That budget lines are under threat should come as no
surprise as ICANN faces tighter revenues, and as ICANN goes
forward both with a bit of belt tightening, and (not
surprisingly) some reflection and reviews around how it
carries out its work. </i><i><br>
</i><i><br>
</i><i>I, as an outsider with no inside information, suspect
that ICANN will have to undergo a bit of organizational
restructuring in the service of its remit and do so within
tightening budget constraints. While NCSG, and NCUC &
NPOC, concern themselves with the short run future of CROPP,
we should be thinking about structural changes that may even
impact on our respective charters. At least that is my read
from the outer seats in the stadium. </i></font><br>
</p>
<br>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 2/15/2018 7:03 PM, Ayden Férdeline
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:hOQwj7n19hUBcuEVujXEEo-jc4V52xEkrFTpFMk8pToUwyPKHQev--DakO5Y9VJgldhybkshgRX8YvCLitHunO8pODjccNIBjstDYnYXGYU=@ferdeline.com">
<div>This is an excellent suggestion, Stephanie. I would like to
hear what suggestions the Board has here for us, too. This is
something we really need to tackle. And it's something I hope
we might be able to table for discussion in San Juan as well.
We need to talk about the expected standard of behaviour for
our officers and members, along with the trajectory ICANN is
moving in and what that could mean for us... We predicted
ICANN was broke last year, insinuated as much in our Reserve
Fund comment, and called for cuts to spending, but we haven't
insulated ourselves sufficiently from these cuts... We are
very, very vulnerable at the moment and if we are not prudent
with our allocation of resources I worry we [non-commercial
voices] could pay a heavy price.<b><i> I think Sam made a very
insightful comment on this topic yesterday on Skype; I'm
cc'ing him into this discussion in case he'd like to paste
his message here for other list subscribers to see, and/or
expand upon his prediction.</i></b>.. I'd certainly like
to hear more about the 'red flags' we should be looking out
for over the coming 12 months...<br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Ayden <br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<br>
</blockquote>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
------------------------------------------------
"It is a disgrace to be rich and honoured
in an unjust state" -Confucius
邦有道，贫且贱焉，耻也。邦无道，富且贵焉，耻也
------------------------------------------------
Visiting Prof, Xi'an Jaiotong-Liverpool Univ, Suzhou, China
Dr Sam Lanfranco (Prof Emeritus & Senior Scholar)
Econ, York U., Toronto, Ontario, CANADA - M3J 1P3
email: <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:Lanfran@Yorku.ca" moz-do-not-send="true">Lanfran@Yorku.ca</a> Skype: slanfranco
blog: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://samlanfranco.blogspot.com" moz-do-not-send="true">https://samlanfranco.blogspot.com</a>
Phone: +1 613-476-0429 cell: +1 416-816-2852</pre>
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