<div dir="ltr"><div>I agree with you Milton.</div><div><br></div><div>We can't not pretend that a null effect (always) means that the safeguards are ineffective. There are many reasons that could justify this. Even a decrease does not necesarily indicate that they are effective (chosen time span might be too short for evaluation, or the study could have been conducted too early).</div><div><br></div><div>When there is a null effect, one must ask what if there was no safeguard ? i.e we can possible (and only) say that the safeguards are ineffective if their presence of absence absolute result in the same rate.</div><div><br></div><div>But from development point of view, when there is an economic growth, it is high likely that criminality will increase because money flow increase and this is normal (criminals always develop new means and bypass). Transposing this to the Internet world means that there is growth in the DNS space associated with interesting business opportunities, there will be also fraud, abuse, increase and possibly in a non proportionned way no matter how many safeguards we put in place, especially when there is too much legal restriction. However, the safeguards are also necessary : monitoring, dissuasive, evidence collection, etc...</div><div><br></div><div>I hope the CCT-RT will use the best approach/model to cope with complex case, since the nine safeguards report was conducted for the prupose to help their work.</div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr">Le mer. 20 sept. 2017 à 19:40, Mueller, Milton L <<a href="mailto:milton@gatech.edu" target="_blank">milton@gatech.edu</a>> a écrit :<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">Farrell<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">Thanks for alerting us to this.
<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">I have quickly skimmed the report and have one immediate comment, probably more later if I get time.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">The report contains this stuff:<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-family:"SourceSansPro-Regular",sans-serif">Three testable hypothetical scenarios derive from the suggested base model:<u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<u></u><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings"><span>ü<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"">
</span></span></span><u></u><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"SourceSansPro-Regular",sans-serif;color:#c00000">Model 1:</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"SourceSansPro-Regular",sans-serif;color:#c00000">
</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"SourceSansPro-Regular",sans-serif">The expansion of the DNS has resulted in a proportional decrease in DNS abuse
</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings">à</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"SourceSansPro-Regular",sans-serif">
<b><span style="color:#70ad47">Effective Safeguard Hypothesis.</span></b><u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="m_5261015168575927257m_8424643741635124927MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;line-height:normal;text-autospace:none">
<u></u><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;color:#70ad47"><span>ü<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"">
</span></span></span><u></u><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"SourceSansPro-Regular",sans-serif;color:#c00000">Model 2:</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"SourceSansPro-Regular",sans-serif;color:#c00000">
</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"SourceSansPro-Regular",sans-serif">The expansion of the DNS via the New gTLD Program has resulted in a proportional increase in DNS abuse
</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings">à</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"SourceSansPro-Regular",sans-serif">
<b><span style="color:#70ad47">Ineffective Safeguard Hypothesis.<u></u><u></u></span></b></span></p>
<p class="m_5261015168575927257m_8424643741635124927MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;line-height:normal;text-autospace:none">
<u></u><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings"><span>ü<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"">
</span></span></span><u></u><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"SourceSansPro-Regular",sans-serif;color:#c00000">Model 3:</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"SourceSansPro-Regular",sans-serif;color:#c00000">
</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"SourceSansPro-Regular",sans-serif">The expansion of the DNS has had a null effect on DNS abuse
</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings">à</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"SourceSansPro-Regular",sans-serif"> Ineffective
<b><span style="color:#70ad47">Safeguard Hypothesis.</span></b><u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="m_5261015168575927257_m_8424643741635124927__MailEndCompose"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">I would like to point out that Model 3 is completely illogical. If the growth of the name space results in a proportional increase in
DNS abuse, then it means that the addition of new gTLDs has no effect on the overall rate of abuse. Therefore, the safeguards are effective and there should be no presumption against adding new TLDs.
<u></u><u></u></span></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">Currently Model 3 says if there is a null effect it means the safeguards are ineffective. This is nonsense. It presumes that we can’t add new TLDs unless it somehow
results in the secular rate of abuse <i>going down</i> <i>across the entire name space, including legacy TLDs</i>. This is like saying that if the growth of the internet results in a proportional increase in cybercrime, then we should stop adding people to
the internet. It isn’t logically justified – and it isn’t fair to those who are not already on the internet, is it?
<u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">I hope everyone on that committee from NCSG understands that the IPR constituency and some in the BC have always opposed name space expansion and will search
for any excuse and any reasons to block the expansion of the name space. And in many respects, these people are arguing against the expansion of the internet itself.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">Dr. Milton L Mueller<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">Professor School of Public Policy<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">Georgia Institute of Technology
<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://internetgovernance.org/" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;text-decoration:none"><img border="0" width="223" height="48" id="m_5261015168575927257m_8424643741635124927Picture_x0020_1" alt="igp email logo"></span></a><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"><u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">From:</span></b><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"> NCSG-Discuss [mailto:<a href="mailto:NCSG-DISCUSS@LISTSERV.SYR.EDU" target="_blank">NCSG-DISCUSS@LISTSERV.SYR.EDU</a>]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Farell Folly<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, September 18, 2017 6:03 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:NCSG-DISCUSS@LISTSERV.SYR.EDU" target="_blank">NCSG-DISCUSS@LISTSERV.SYR.EDU</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Public Comment on the Statistical Analysis of DNS Abuse in gTLDs (SADAG) Report<u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Dear All (<span style="color:red">Sorry for double posting - as I have no idea whether my first attempts was effectively delivered or not</span>)<u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">The NCSG is required to make a public comment on the SADAG report available at this
<a href="https://www.icann.org/public-comments/sadag-final-2017-08-09-en" target="_blank">
link</a>. Actually, following a call from Rafik, our policy Committte Chair, a few people volunteered to draft a
<a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/10K4cnqMrhRnF1mZFtBbQKpzGNMBcZv2OCjvly_8eYoQ/edit" target="_blank">
proposal</a> which intends to represent the NCSG position on <a href="https://www.icann.org/public-comments/sadag-final-2017-08-09-en" target="_blank">
this report</a>, therefore; all members are encouraged to review the draft and make any comment or suggestion by tomorrow september 19th (ideally - as the original deadline) or not later than thursday (we are trying to posptone the deadline to Friday).<u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">The purpose of this public comment is to gather feedback and analyze the data, methodology, and results of the Statistical Analysis of DNS Abuse in the new gTLDs (SADAG) report.
The report is under the review of the CCT Review Team which will use it as input to evaluate the effectiveness of the nine safeguards techniques to mitigate DNS abuse following the introduction of the new gTLDs.</span> <u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">To have a quick background on the topic, I drafted some materials that I want to share with those who have no idea about it but wish to contribute. <u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">-- <u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Regards<u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">@__f_f__<u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/farellf" target="_blank">https://www.linkedin.com/in/farellf</a> <u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">-- <u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Regards<u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">@__f_f__<u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/farellf" target="_blank">https://www.linkedin.com/in/farellf</a> <u></u><u></u></p>
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</div></div></div></blockquote></div></div><div dir="ltr">-- <br></div><div class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr">Regards<div><div>@__f_f__</div><div><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/farellf">https://www.linkedin.com/in/farellf</a> <br></div></div></div></div>